As the austral summer draws to a close, we are preparing to fly over the Southern Alps to survey glaciers. This annual flight supports the longest scientific study of Aotearoa New Zealand’s icescapes – and it shows that all of our glaciers have retreated since 1978.

This year’s survey comes on the heels of the warmest year on record globally and the second warmest for New Zealand, which produced extreme weather events and impacts that still cut deep for many local communities.

Despite strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific this season, which typically boost ice volume, we expect the recent heat grilling the glaciers will have had a grim effect.

The 46-year record of end-of-summer glacier images is incredibly valuable because it contains irrefutable visual evidence of climate change. We can see how glaciers are changing from year to year, with extremely hot years such as 2023 standing out clearly.

But our insights aren’t limited to images of glaciers taken from light aircraft. We can also learn from historic paintings of New Zealand’s mountain landscapes.

Portraits of past climate

Old paintings with glaciers are common for the European Alps, where many artists lived and visited. But similar offerings are relatively rare for our part of the world.

What’s remarkable for New Zealand is that some of these works of art were produced without the artist ever seeing the glaciers.

We recently scrutinised the artistic vistas painted by John Gully to see if they were true to the real landscapes. Gully based his works on field sketches by Julius Haast, one of the first scientists to formerly recognise widespread glaciation in New Zealand.

Gully’s paintings show features that can be linked to glacial landforms we can see today, including moraines (rocks deposited by a glacier, typically at its edges), outwash fans (sediment deposited by braided rivers fed by a melting glacier) and trimlines (lines that mark a glacier’s earlier, higher position in a valley).

Many of those features in the paintings have ice in direct contact with them, showing how accurately field scientists and artists depicted glaciers at the time.

Gully’s paintings were intended to convey the dramatic scale of a mysterious land located far away from industrialised 19th-century society. Serendipitously, for contemporary scientists, comparing these artworks with current photos vividly shows the magnitude of ice loss that has occurred since the mid-1800s.

The perspective we get from Gully’s paintings concurs with studies that place the timing of ice retreat as being already underway in the mid-1800s. Prior to this time, known commonly as the Little Ice Age, New Zealand experienced cooler temperatures between about 1450 and 1850.

Modelling ice volume loss using these Little Ice Age landforms provides a benchmark. It illustrates that recent changes have occurred in a geological instant and that the peak summer flows from glaciers that helped create the braided river systems so typical of the South Island landscape are in the past.

Accelerating pace of glacier retreat

Recent glacier changes are occurring ever more quickly. The long-term photographic record from the Southern Alps shows an acceleration of the pace at which snowlines rise due to climate warming.

For a glacier to exist, average summer temperatures must be cool enough for the summer snowline to remain below mountain tops so ice can accumulate. We now observe that ice is disappearing from mountains which held small amounts during the late 1970s. Glaciers there are going extinct.

Combining long-term snowline observations with direct field measurements of glacier mass balance and 3D models of ice volume change gives a good synopsis of how things have changed and a sense of things to come.

We estimate at least 13 trillion litres of water (in the form of ice) has been lost from the Southern Alps since 1978. This is equivalent to the basic water needs for all New Zealanders during that time.

The regions around the central Southern Alps that hold many small glaciers are experiencing accelerated ice loss. Some areas, like Southland and Otago, have small glaciers that are rapidly approaching an extinction horizon. And once they pass it, we are not likely to see them again.

The central North Island also hosts a number of small glaciers on Mt. Ruapehu that feed into the headwaters of the Waikato and Whanganui rivers. Glaciers there were originally mapped in the mid-20th century, and again in 1978, 1988 and 2016. A recent photographic capture of Mt Ruapehu reflects a dire situation, indicating glaciers are fast approaching extinction.

Environments and ethics

New Zealand’s diminishing glaciers and loss of ice across Earth are largely carrying on unabated. These changes are primarily caused by rising temperatures driven by human activities that produce greenhouse gas emissions.

The global increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide continues undiminished. This needs to change soon and rapidly to protect many of our glaciers.

We face particularly serious ethical questions with respect to Mt Ruapehu’s glaciers. They help sustain the Whanganui River Te Awa Tupua, which has been granted the rights of a living entity. The glaciers’ ongoing retreat – and possible extinction – highlights our collective responsibilities for doing simultaneous harm to the environment and people.

The authors acknowledge Rebekah Parsons-King at NIWA for her work on the Glacier Extinction Horizons video. We also thank Brian Anderson for his long-term leadership on the Brewster Glacier snowstakes programme, and Pascal Sirguey for his work calculating mass balance for Brewster Glacier.

Andrew Lorrey is principal scientist and programme leader of Southern Hemisphere climates and environments at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research; George Hook is a research associate (in process) at Canterbury Museum; Lauren Vargo is a research fellow at the ANtarctic Research Centre at Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington; and Shaun Eaves is senior lecturer in physical geography, also at Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Extreme weather events are affecting the entire world at an increasing and alarming pace. Human activity is driving climate change. Given the urgency and severity of the crisis, we should adopt the term “climate collapse” to more properly convey the emergency to industry and the public.

The travel and tourism industry, which accounts for 10% of global GDP, employs 320 million people and creates 1 in 5 new jobs, is at risk owing to increasing numbers and severity of fires, floods, drought and super storms, as well as high heat and sea level rise. The industry must mitigate its impact on the climate to reduce its emissions and support its economic survival. 

Some major industry actors are rising to the challenge by committing to science-based targets initiatives (SBTi) – an initiative that validates companies’ carbon emissions reduction plan. While these steps are encouraging, only 75 travel and 27 hospitality companies have committed to SBTi (1.6% and 0.6% respectively of all 4,644 SBTi client companies around the world).

The industry must do much more to meaningfully mitigate and reverse climate collapse.

The travel and tourism industry has roared back from Covid-19 and is projected to grow significantly over the next decade and beyond. Combatting overtourism is critical as part of an overall more sustainable and responsible tourism ethos and model, and to reaching net zero goals.

When responsible tourism was defined in 2002, right before the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, there was no specific mention of the impact of the industry on climate change. In just 20 years it has become evident that this is now the industry’s top priority.

Hospitality sector

All major hospitality players have embraced the environmental, social and governance (ESG) model and are committed to reducing their carbon footprint. They are working toward reducing the impact of their buildings by retrofitting old ones and imposing stricter environmental rules on developers, architects, designers and engineers, using certifications such as LEED or BREEAM.

For almost 20 years, these companies have given guidance and regulations to their assets to develop a more sustainable approach to their operations, from renewable energy, energy efficiency and water conservation, to local employment and supporting cultural heritage. They have developed their own corporate responsibility measurement platforms and most hotel management companies have set up science-based targets (SBTi) for 2030.

But they will not succeed without buy-in from REITS (real estate investment trusts) and smaller owners or franchisees who are the true decision-makers when it comes to necessary investments for technical adjustments to their buildings and operations.

Like many other industries the hospitality industry relies on many important stakeholders in supply chains who will all need to be aligned to the same goals. 

Only 25 years ago almost no one in the sector was focused on responsible tourism, so there are reasons for hope that by 2030, more actors will be thoroughly involved thanks to the attention that client corporations and individual customers are giving to a more responsible approach.

Aviation industry

There is much talk about the impact of aviation on global greenhouse gas emissions. It accounts for 1.9% – far less than livestock and manure for instance (5.8%) and textile industry (10%). That being said, it is important to work on reducing the industry’s emissions as they will keep growing in years to come.

There are two main opportunities offering signs of hope: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and electric planes:

• SAF, produced from food, oil waste and biomass, should become more efficient by 2035. These fuels are currently used as support to kerosene during many flights.
• Electric and hybrid planes will become a reality by the end of this decade, even if just for short haul. They will meet the requirements of regional flights, private jets and some charter flights.

Becoming a net-zero industry will be a long journey for aviation but its main actors are committed to fulfill that objective by 2050.

Cruise lines

The cruise line sector has come under a lot of scrutiny and major operators have now committed to running more responsible operations and using more sustainable fuels. Its net-zero commitments usually target 2050 – and hopefully research and development will help them reach these goals earlier. 

Tour operators, travel advisors, distribution channels

These important actors all include sustainability criteria in their programmes and platforms and deliver badges to hotels. They usually rely on accredited or recognised standards from the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC).

Trade organisations, such as SHA, WTTC and Travalyst, have created minimum standards and best practices for the industry and recently partnered with GSTC. 

The Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC)

After a first decade of operations during which the GSTC became the common denominator for all sustainable hospitality and destination certifications, the criteria is now recognized by all tourism stakeholders and is the best reference for all actors of the industry.

Another evolution that offers great optimism is the fact that countries like Turkey, Greece and Singapore have adopted the GSTC criteria and are using it to support the industry’s adaptation to Responsible Tourism.

Whilst there is still much to do before responsible tourism becomes a common journey for all industry stakeholders, a lot has been accomplished in the past 20 years. 

The long journey to net zero will reach a checkpoint in 2030, following the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development, and a formal date of 2050 to be fully realised and achieved. Measurement, ongoing reporting and transparency are critical to ensure meaningful progress continues, rather than waiting until 2030 to understand if strategies are working and taking corrective actions if needed. 

It is reasonable to say that those engaging their company in 2050 goals today will no longer be at the helm when 2050 arrives. Their legacy will depend upon the seriousness of their current engagement and the strategies to support it.

Failure is not an option: future generations rely on the accountability of those who have the power today to make a major difference to reversing the climate collapse.

Stuart Greif is chief strategy, innovation and operating officer at Forbes Travel Guide and Herve Houdre is founder and chief executive of H2 Sustainability Consulting.

This article is republished from the World Economic Forum under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

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We are still getting used to a “new normal” of devastating summer heatwaves. But the effects of a warming climate are being felt throughout the year, and recent autumn months have been further off the charts than ever.

In fact, climate change and an El Niño have both contributed to the world in 2023 having its hottest [Northern Hemisphere] autumn since records began in 1850. September was 0.93°C above the 1991-2020 average, and a whole 1.75°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial reference period. October was also the hottest on record, at 0.85°C above the recent average.

This hot autumn has already meant stronger storms and more intense rainfall and droughts. And this in turn affects farming, energy, tourism and other sectors that depend on reliable seasons.

A global system but local effects

Warmer oceans have been linked to intensification of storms in the Atlantic. One of these, Storm Babet, recently broke UK rainfall records dating back to 1881. Babet was soon followed by Storm Ciarán, bringing more extreme winds and heavy rainfall to still-saturated lands.

The UK is no stranger to Atlantic storm systems, but they primarily occur during the winter months. The fact that these severe storms are occurring in autumn is unusual.

Partly this is because an abnormally warm Atlantic Ocean is generating stronger storms (in 174 years of data, August and September 2023 were the two months where sea surface temperatures were furthest above the long-term average). Warmer oceans release more moisture into the atmosphere and carry more energy which effectively acts as fuel for storms.

When the tropical Atlantic is warm, storms generated there also change direction, tending to track northward across the ocean before bending to the east. In future, warmer autumns are likely to mean more of these storms sustaining themselves across the Atlantic to hit Western Europe.

Storms are getting stronger elsewhere too. Hurricane Otis recently devastated the Mexican city of Acapulco, for instance. Otis developed from a regular storm into a huge hurricane in record time, and was the first time in history that a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific made landfall and sustained itself as the strongest “Category 5” storm. Tropical Cyclone Tej hit the Arabian Peninsula the week before with 480mm of rainfall in the Al–Ghaydah region in Yemen – eight times the annual average.

Problems for farms and energy generation

In unusually warm autumns, extended periods of heat and low rainfall can impact late-season crops such as apples, pears, berries and brassicas. In November 2022, warm and dry weather resulted in the early emergence of some winter crops across many European regions. In 2022, China experienced a shock to its autumn yields of wheat and some vegetables following an extended period of drought and elevated temperatures into the Autumn harvesting season.

Energy generation is also increasingly vulnerable to autumn heat. In 2022, a warm autumn meant Europeans used less natural gas for heating, and instead used electricity for cooling. Drought adds a compounding challenge, as less power can be generated through hydroelectric dams, while less reliable reservoir levels make it harder to schedule generation in advance to coincide with periods of peak demand. In late summer and autumn last year in France, rivers became so warm they were less able to cool down nuclear reactors.

Autumn as the new summer?

Tourism is just as vulnerable to unseasonal temperatures. While numbers are often dictated by external factors such as school holidays, extreme summer temperatures will increasingly see people going away in spring and autumn instead.

Yet even autumn destinations are finding things are changing. New England in the US is known for its spectacular colourful trees at this time of year, yet warming conditions are changing the timing and vibrancy of its leaf fall. Autumn heat variation could impact the volume of visitors, threatening a billion dollar tourism industry.

Something similar is being observed in Japan, where leaves are staying on trees until later in the year. This can create further hazards, as when trees have more leaf surface area they’re more exposed to destructive wind storms.

These are just some of the effects of an unusually warm autumn, even by current standards. But with summers being extended and more storms and extreme weather in the autumn months seemingly the new norm, we need to start rethinking what weather we can expect at this time of year.

Scott McGrane is a senior lecturer in environmental change in the department of economics and Christopher J White is head of the centre for water, environment, sustainability and public health, both at Glasgow’s University of Strathclyde.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.

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Holidays are making a comeback after several years of disruption caused by the Covid pandemic. Nearly 4 billion passengers boarded international flights in 2022, up from fewer than 2 billion in 2020. Recent research suggests that people are likely to continue travelling more in 2023 and beyond.

But this resurgence in travel is concerning. The tourism sector alone is responsible for an estimated 8%–10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. And conditions at traditional holiday destinations in high summer are becoming increasingly unpleasant if not downright hazardous.

During the past year, numerous climate records have been broken as heatwaves and wildfires ravaged large parts of Europe, Asia and North America. In July, both Sardinia and Sicily experienced temperatures in excess of 46°C, nearly breaking European records.

Most of what we do while on holiday, particularly on holidays abroad, releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and ultimately has an impact on the climate. But the way most of us get there – by flying – is potentially most damaging. UK data suggests that a single passenger on a short-haul flight, for instance, is responsible for releasing the equivalent of approximately 154g of CO₂ for every kilometre travelled.

As the effects of climate change become increasingly severe, there’s genuine concern that traditional destinations will become too hot in summer to remain appealing to visitors. This raises the question: how will tourism adapt?

Changing destinations

Researchers have been trying to predict the future of tourism for quite some time. One idea is that tourism will undergo a “poleward shift” as global warming causes temperatures to rise not only in traditionally hot regions, but also in locations further to the north and south.

A modelling study from 2007 predicted that, by 2050, hotter weather would make popular tourist hotspots like the Mediterranean less appealing in the summer. At the same time, northern destinations such as Scandinavia and the UK would experience longer holiday seasons.

Approximately half of global tourism is concentrated in coastal areas. So another concern is the potential loss of beaches due to rising sea levels. In the Caribbean, an estimated 29% of resort properties would be partially or fully inundated by one metre of sea-level rise – though many of these resorts would have lost a significant amount of their beach area before this.

Some other beach destinations are potentially even more vulnerable. Sardinia was hit by disruptive storms in 2022. Research suggests that the beaches there may struggle to accommodate tourists in the near future due to a greater risk of flooding and storms.

The impact of climate change on tourism will extend beyond just coastal areas. Many popular city break destinations, including Porto in Portugal, are expecting to endure more severe heat. Tourism in mountainous areas will be affected, too, as accelerated snow melt leads to shorter ski seasons.

The practicalities of tourism shifting

Changing conditions will affect where humans can safely travel to. But travel patterns take time to evolve. In the meantime, established destinations will need to change to withstand challenges such as extreme heat, rising sea levels and other climatic conditions.

Existing tourist destinations in areas of the world that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as the Nile Delta in Egypt, are already considering ways to adapt. These include building seawalls and natural dunes to protect tourist areas from coastal flooding. Changing construction materials and reconfiguring urban spaces to improve ventilation have also been proposed as ways to reduce reliance on expensive and energy-intensive air-conditioning.

New destinations that begin to emerge in more temperate regions will require substantial infrastructure development to support the influx of visitors. This includes transport systems, accommodation, dining options and attractions. The process of establishing tourist destinations typically takes time and requires careful thought.

Barcelona, for example, has experienced a rapid surge in tourism demand since the 1992 Olympics. This has resulted in a tenfold increase in visitors over the past three decades.

Such rapid tourism development can put a strain on local people and the environment. Although Barcelona already had a transport system and some infrastructure to accommodate visitors, the rapid growth in tourism has led to strong opposition from local residents.

What will happen next year?

The current thinking among tourism academics is that those responsible for managing tourist destinations should work towards reducing carbon emissions by focusing on the domestic market.

But, as recent summers have shown, international tourism does not look set to slow down yet. Even amid crises such as the fires burning through Rhodes in summer 2023, tourists continued to arrive.

Rather than choose different destinations, the most likely scenario – at least in the short-term – is that tourists themselves will adapt to the effects of climate change. During Europe’s summer 2023 heatwave, there were reports that people were staying in their hotel rooms in the hottest part of the day and taking sightseeing trips in the evening.

Nevertheless, there are some signs that travellers may be starting to worry about more extreme weather conditions and adapt their travel plans accordingly. A survey conducted in May 2023 showed that 69% of Europeans planned to travel between June and November – a fall of 4% compared to 2022.

The heatwave of summer 2023 might mean that tourists start looking for cooler destinations as early as the coming year.

The evolving landscape of global tourism in the face of climate change is complex. What is clear, though, is that if Europe continues to experience extreme weather conditions like the summer of 2023, many people will think twice about booking their place in the sun.

Nick Davies, Lecturer and Programme Leader, BA International Tourism and Events Management, Glasgow Caledonian University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Hot weather is what many people go on holiday for. But record global temperatures have been sending people home early from their vacations this July, raising questions about what kind of impact the climate crisis could have on the tourism sector – and on tourism-dependent economies.

Greece – where travel and tourism make up 15% of GDP – has had to evacuate over 2,000 holidaymakers after wildfires broke out on the island of Rhodes. Athens took the unprecedented step of closing its top tourist attraction, the Acropolis, after temperatures reached 45°C.

“The climate crisis is already here,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. “It will manifest itself everywhere in the Mediterranean with greater disasters.”

Over in Italy, visitors to Rome have been returning home early because of the heatwave, while hospitals have faced a rise in the number of medical emergencies. Admissions at one hospital reached their highest since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Soaring temperatures have not just been ending holidays – they’ve even stopped some from getting started. This is because aircraft find it harder to get off the ground in hotter conditions, as it makes the air less dense.

US airlines flying out of Las Vegas – where temperatures hit 46°C – have consequently had to reduce passenger numbers, remove baggage, reduce the level of fuel they are carrying or delay flights until temperatures fall.

The impact of the climate crisis on tourism

The climate crisis has played an “absolutely overwhelming” part in the northern hemisphere heatwave, according to World Weather Attribution. And heatwaves will become hotter and longer unless the world quickly halts its use of fossil fuels, they say.

The tourism sector creates around a tenth of the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving the climate crisis, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. Practically half of all transport emissions stem from global tourism, other studies say. And total emissions from tourism are forecast to rise by a quarter between 2016 and 2030, says the UN World Tourism Organization.

But the tourism industry and tourism-dependent economies are also highly vulnerable to the impacts of rising temperatures. 

The Caribbean attracted over 28 million visitors in 2022 and its economy is more reliant on travel and tourism than any other region, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. Tourism makes up around 90% of GDP in Aruba and the British Virgin Islands.

Yet these low-lying states are seeing sea levels rise almost 10% faster than the global average, according to the World Meteorological Association. The vast majority of holiday resorts in the Caribbean are coastal, leaving 60% of them at risk from sea level rise, according to the University of Cambridge.

Biodiversity damage

Coral bleaching and increasing droughts are already impacting the Caribbean’s tourism potential, the UK government notes.

Meanwhile, South-East Asia’s most popular costal destinations are suffering environmental damage from factors including pollution and overtourism. Thailand’s Maya Bay, Malaysia’s Sipadan Island and the Philippines’ Boraca Island are all being impacted, and some countries in the region are now closing tourist spots to give the most damaged areas time to recover, the Harvard School of Public Health notes.

“As the prime motivation for visitors to come to the region hinges on local landscapes, biodiversity, heritage and cultures, the sector’s survival depends on the ability to retain and preserve as much of these natural resources as possible,” The ASEAN Post reports.

The prospects of African safaris could also be hit by the climate crisis, which is forecast to lead to the loss of over half of the continent’s bird and mammal species by 2100 and trigger huge losses of plant species. 

Measures are being taken to protect the continent’s natural bounties. The Seychelles islands off East Africa have added conservation guidlines to the national constitution – the first time a country has done so.

Sustainable, nature-based tourism is a potentially huge economic driver for Africa, and could create 40% more full-time jobs than agricutlure, the UN Environment Programme says. 

High temperatures will change tourism patterns

Rising temperatures are likely to result in tourists travelling in spring and autumn rather than the summer, as well as opting for cooler destinations, Italy’s environment ministry says.

There has already been a 10% drop in the number of people planning to visit the Mediterranean in June-November this year following last year’s high temperatures, according to the European Travel Commission. It says tourists are considering trips to the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland and Bulgaria instead.

On top of this, “large-scale land loss” is already eating into the Mediterranean’s beaches, according to Germany’s federal environment agency. One beach in Mallorca now has space for half the amount of huts it used to have, as well as fewer sun loungers, DW News reports.

The spike in temperatures is also worrying the organisers of the 2024 Olympics Games in Paris. They are closely monitoring long-term weather models, with International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach saying the climate crisis is affecting how sporting events – a major driver of tourism – will be organised around the globe.

Colder climates are suffering, too

The Alps region attracts around 120 million tourists a year, and tourism is critical to the economies of many local towns. Skiing and snowboarding are top of many visitor lists, but rising global temperatures have reduced seasonal snow cover in the Alps by 8.4% per decade in the past 50 years.

Canada’s Whistler ski resort has responded to this by offering more snow-free activities – so much so that it now makes more money in summer, according to TIME magazine.

But adapting in this way is not an option for all tourism destinations, such as coastal resorts. With coastal tourism accounting for more than 60% of European holidays and more than 80% of US tourism revenues, the tourism industry and the countries that rely on it may need to urgently rethink the way they operate.

“In the coming years, the success of travel and tourism businesses and destinations will be increasingly tied to their ability to manage and operate under ever greater ecological and environmental threats,” says the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index.

How tourism can change

Sustainable tourism is one way to help protect countries and economies at risk from the climate crisis. It is also one of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

The UN World Tourism Organization defines sustainable tourism as “tourism that takes full account of its current and future economic, social and environmental impacts, addressing the needs of visitors, the industry, the environment and host communities”.

This could include limiting tourist numbers (as is being done in Southern France to help protect ecosystems), banning polluting forms of transports (as the Dutch capital Amsterdam is doing with cruise ships and the Spanish city of Barcelona is trying to do).

Staying only in environmentally friendly resorts is another option. Some are ensuring they run on renewable power, harvest rainwater and cut waste.

Avoiding flying is another option. British eco-charity Possible is promoting this through its Climate Perks initiative. UK companies who sign up agree to give staff increased paid leave to cover the time needed for slower, greener modes of transport such as trains or coaches when they go on holiday. 

Ditching planes is also part of the “slow travel” trend. It advocates dropping the “bucket list” approach of ticking off as many destinations as possible, with travellers instead staying in one place and experiencing a local culture more fully.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on the Future of Sustainable Tourism is working to help the tourism sector create pathways towards net-zero, nature-positive tourism that benefits local communities.

“Diversifying tourism strategies and activities is essential for countries to build resilience against economic fluctuations, mitigate overreliance on a single industry, and foster sustainable development that benefits both the local communities and the environment,” says Topaz Smith, community lead for aviation, travel and tourism at the World Economic Forum. 

“Long-term planning is crucial for a more risk-resilient travel and tourism sector that anticipates and plans for future headwinds while maximizing development potential.”

Ian Shine is a senior writer for the World Economic Forum‘s Forum Agenda. This article is republished in accordance with the Creative Commons. Read the original article here.

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Over 24 hours, 249mm of rain fell – well above the previous record of 161.8mm. A state of emergency was declared late in the evening.

It has taken a terrible toll on Aucklanders, with two people reported dead and two more missing. Damage to houses, cars, roads and infrastructure will run into many millions of dollars.

Watching the images roll into social media on Friday evening, I thought to myself that I’ve seen these kinds of pictures before. But usually they’re from North America or Asia, or maybe Europe. But this was New Zealand’s largest city. Nowhere is safe from extreme weather these days.

How it happened

The torrential rain came from a storm in the north Tasman Sea linked to a source of moisture from the tropics. This is what meteorologists call an “atmospheric river”.

The storm was quite slow-moving because it was cradled to the south by a huge anticyclone (a high) that stopped it moving quickly across the country.

Embedded in the main band of rain, severe thunderstorms developed in the unstable air over the Auckland region. These delivered the heaviest rain falls, with MetService figures showing Auckland Airport received its average monthly rain for January in less than hour.

The type of storm which brought the mayhem was not especially remarkable, however. Plenty of similar storms have passed through Auckland. But, as the climate continues to warm, the amount of water vapour in the air increases.

I am confident climate change contributed significantly to the incredible volume of rain that fell so quickly in Auckland this time.

Warmer air means more water

There will be careful analysis of historical records and many simulations with climate models to nail down the return period of this flood (surely in the hundreds of years at least, in terms of our past climate).

How much climate change contributed to the rainfall total will be part of those calculations. But it is obvious to me this event is exactly what we expect as a result of climate change.

One degree of warming in the air translates, on average, to about 7% more water vapour in that air. The globe and New Zealand have experienced a bit over a degree of warming in the past century, and we have measured the increasing water vapour content.

But when a storm comes along, it can translate to much more than a 7% increase in rainfall. Air “converges” (is drawn in) near the Earth’s surface into a storm system. So all that moister air is brought together, then “wrung out” to deliver the rain.

A severe thunderstorm is the same thing on a smaller scale. Air is sucked in at ground level, lofted up and cooled quickly, losing much of its moisture in the process.

While the atmosphere now holds 7% more water vapour, this convergence of air masses means the rain bursts can be 10% or even 20% heavier.

Beyond the capacity of stormwater systems

The National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (NIWA) estimates that over Auckland, one degree of warming translates to about a 20% increase in the one-hour rainfall, for a one-in-50-year event.

The longer we continue to warm the climate, the heavier the storm rainfalls will get.

Given what we have already seen, how do we adapt? Flooding happens when stormwater can’t drain away fast enough. So what we need are bigger drains, larger stormwater pipes and stormwater systems that can deal with such extremes.

The country’s stormwater drain system was designed for the climate we used to have – 50 or more years ago. What we need is a stormwater system designed for the climate we have now, and the one we’ll have in 50 years from now.

Another part of the response can be a “softening” of the urban environment. Tar-seal and concrete surfaces force water to stay at the surface, to pool and flow.

If we can re-expose some of the streams that have been diverted into culverts, re-establish a few wetlands among the built areas, we can create a more spongy surface environment more naturally able to cope with heavy rainfall. These are the responses we need to be thinking about and taking action on now.

We also need to stop burning fossil fuels and get global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases down as fast as we can. New Zealand has an emissions reduction plan – we need to see it having an effect from this year. And every country must follow suit.

As I said at the start, no community is immune from these extremes and we must all work together.

James Renwick is Professor of Physical Geography (climate science) at Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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When record-breaking heatwaves cause train tracks to bend, airport runways to buckle, and roads to melt, as happened in the United Kingdom last month, it is likely that business performance will suffer.

The problem is not going away, either. Businesses will need to better manage extreme heat risk. But are investors sufficiently informed on the economic toll caused by the increasing frequency of extreme weather?

It is becoming clearer that extreme heat can have devastating and costly effects. People are dying, energy grids are struggling to cope, transport is disrupted, and severe drought is straining agriculture and water reserves.

While the frequency of these events is increasing, more worrisome is that heat intensity is also increasing. Clearly, businesses are not immune to the need to adapt, though their silence might make you think otherwise.

Rising temperatures affect everything

Keeping cool, transporting goods, and scheduling flights as runways melted were just some of the challenges people and businesses have faced during the current European summer.

As it became apparent that our workplaces and infrastructure might not be able to cope with extreme heat, we also saw unions call for workers to stay home. But could workers take the day off? The UK’s Health and Safety Executive stated:

“There is no maximum temperature for workplaces, but all workers are entitled to an environment where risks to their health and safety are properly controlled.”

Are these rules sufficient in this new normal? Some EU countries already have upper limits, but many do not. The Washington Post reported US federal action might be coming due to concerns over extreme heat for workers. Mitigation of these factors will no doubt be costly.

While media reports highlight the toll on workers and businesses, there is little empirical evidence on the financial hit to business. Here is where our research comes into play: how much of an impact does extreme heat have on business profitability?

Heat hitting the bottom line

We focused on the European Union and the UK because the region has a diversity of climate and weather extremes. They are a major economic force, with strong policies on decarbonising their economies, but also rely on coal, gas, and oil for many sectors.

When it’s hot, these countries are forced to burn more fossil fuel to cool overheated populations, contrary to the need and desire to do the opposite.

With detailed records on heat events at a local level, we connected weather data to a large sample of private and public companies in the EU and the UK. We focused on two critical aspects of a firm’s financial performance around a heat spell (at least three consecutive days of excessive heat): the effect on profit margin and the impact on sales. We also examined firms’ stock performance.

We found that businesses do suffer financially, and the effects are wide ranging.

For the average business in our sample, these impacts translate into an annualised loss of sales of about 0.63% and a profit margin decrease of approximately 0.16% for a one degree increase in temperature above a critical level of about 25C.

Aggregated for all firms in our sample, UK and EU businesses lose almost US$614m (NZ$975m) in annual sales for every additional degree of excessive temperature.

Impact bigger than the data shows

We also found the intensity of a heat wave is more important than its duration.

This financial effect might sound small, but remember, this is an average effect across the EU and the UK. The localised effect is much larger for some firms, especially those in more southern latitudes.

The stock market response to extreme heat is also muted, perhaps for the same reason. We find stock prices on average dropped by about 22 basis points in response to a heat spell.

These average annualised effects include businesses’ efforts to recoup lost sales during heat spells. They also include businesses in certain sectors and regions that appear to benefit from critically high heat spell temperatures, such as power companies and firms in northern European countries.

While we show a systematic and robust result, our evidence probably further underestimates the total effects of heat waves. That’s because businesses disclose very little about those effects due to lax disclosure rules and stock exchange regulations relating to extreme weather.

Financial data part of climate change

Without a doubt, better disclosure will help untangle these effects.

Ideally, financial data needs to be segmented by climate risk and extreme heat dimensions so investors are better able to price the risk. Regulators need to pay attention here. Investors must be able to price material risk from extreme weather.

A good example is New Zealand, which is about to mandate climate risk disclosures with reporting periods starting in 2023. Such mandates recognise that poor disclosure of climate risk is endemic, and we don’t have the luxury of time.

For those businesses negatively affected, disclosing the number and cost of lost hours and the location of the damage would be helpful. However, it is not yet clear if climate disclosure standards effectively capture these risks, as companies have significant discretion about what to disclose.

It is not necessarily all about cost – some sectors might even benefit. While power companies, for example, might report increased sales from increased energy consumption, they are also constrained by the grid and the increased cost of production.

And our evidence suggests there is little overall benefit to the energy sector. This doesn’t rule out some windfall profits, so we need to understand more about both the positive and negative effects on each industry.

Finally, this July saw temperatures in the United Kingdom soar to 20 degrees centigrade above normal. Can businesses cope? Next time you feel the heat, pause to ask if this is also hitting the bottom line of your workplace or investment portfolio.

David Lont is professor of accounting and finance at University of Otago, Martien Lubberink is associate professor of economics at Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington, and Paul Griffin is distinguished professor of management at University of California.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

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