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Over the last months, the raison d’être of winter sports has been threatened more than ever by a range of challenges and controversies. From the occupation by activists of the glacier of Girose, Southeastern France, to protest against plans for a new cable car, to doubts over whether to hold pre-season sporting events following the partial destruction of the Théodule glacier in Switzerland, scarce snow is pitting people against one another.

Behind all these tensions lies the same question: what does the future hold for skiing on an overheating planet?

In recent decades, France has seen some ski resorts close due to a lack of snow or a sustainable business model. However, the majority of resorts continue to cling to the hope of adapting to rising temperatures. But will reproducing the tried and tested recipes of the past be enough to meet the climate challenges ahead?

Published in Nature Climate Change, our study of 2,234 winter sports resorts in Europe sought to measure the impact of global warming on snowmaking in resorts, and the possible room for manoeuvre available to adapt.

This question is not just a concern for amateur or professional skiers. Skiing is also an economic issue, with a total turnover estimated at 30 billion euros in Europe. In France alone, 120,000 jobs depending directly and indirectly on the ski economy.

53% of ski resorts are at risk of running out of snow at +2°C

Climate change is a global phenomenon impacting resorts worldwide, but not all mountain areas are affected to the same degree or with the same speed, and the ability to limit the impact of these changes through snow production also varies greatly. We have measured the impact of climate change on winter sports resorts based on the level of global warming, using the graphical representation, commonly used in IPCC reports, of “burning embers”.

At 2°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, 53% of European resorts are at very high risk of low snowfall. We assess the risk of low snowfall on the basis of the frequency of snow conditions considered to be the most unfavourable, those encountered on average one season in five between 1961 and 1990, the golden age of resort development.

However, the picture varies at a national level: in the French Alps, this proportion concerns a third of resorts, while in the Pyrenees and in the Franco-Swiss mid-mountain massifs, 89% and 80% respectively of resorts are affected by a very high level of risk of low snowfall.

At 4°C of global warming, 98% of European resorts are at very high risk of low snowfall. With this level of warming, the climate leaves winter sports resorts little margin for adaptation.

Changes in the use of snow production

One of the most popular solutions to adapt to scarcer snow is snowmaking, also known as “artificial snow”. Snow production involves projecting micro-droplets of water into the atmosphere so that they freeze before falling back to the ground. The resulting snow, made up of small balls of ice, is a suitable material for making an underlay.

In the past, snow was produced mainly to limit the impact of natural fluctuations in snow cover from one season to the next. Snow is now mainly produced in the pre-season, without any knowledge of the weather conditions for the coming winter, and then on a more ad hoc basis if necessary between the Christmas and winter holidays.

Snow production also affected by rising temperatures

Like natural snow, snow production is affected by rising temperatures, because snow production requires sufficiently cold weather conditions. This dual pressure is leading to increased investment to ensure that sufficient snow can be produced, thereby increasing the dependency of mountain resorts on snow tourism.

Not all ski resorts will equally be able to adapt to rising temperatures by producing snow. At +2°C global warming, snowmaking, if applied to 50% of the ski area, would reduce the proportion of resorts exposed to a very high risk of low snowfall in the Alps and Pyrenees to 7% and 9% respectively, while in the mid-range mountain ranges the proportion would be 56%. These differences are even more marked at higher levels of warming.

However, it should be remembered that while the level of snow cover is critical to ensuring resorts’ long-term socio-economic viability, other criteria are just as fundamental, such as the state of the ski lift network, promotion/marketing methods, or accommodation capacity and its attractiveness. It is therefore not possible to draw any direct conclusions from the figures for the risk of low snowfall as to the proportion or number of resorts likely to cease skiing.

The carbon footprint of snow production

What’s more, snow production is not carbon-neutral, so it’s important to bear this in mind before setting this technique up as the ultimate answer to reducing snow cover.

We have therefore also calculated the water requirements, production and energy demand involved, and the carbon footprint of the electricity used to produce snow. Over the reference period (1961-1990), the total quantity of snow produced on the slopes covered by the installations represents 13% of the total precipitation that falls annually on these same slopes. Assuming that 50% of the slopes are covered by snowmaking facilities, the total volume should increase by between 8% and 25%, depending on the country, for a warming of +2°C, and even more for a more marked warming.

This demand also tends to stagger over time, with lower production in November due to fewer cold spells favourable to production at the start of winter. It is therefore likely that the services provided by snow production will not be the same as in the past, which could make snow cover even more fragile over the high season.

In any case, the total volume of water that could be needed remains moderate, and a large part of this water is returned to the rivers as it melts. This is not to say complications can’t occur at a local scale further down the line, depending on how the water is drawn and of the makeup of affected ecosystems.

Similarly, at around 80 kt eq CO₂, the carbon footprint of the electricity used to produce snow remains limited, even if it varies greatly depending on countries’ energy mix.

Skiers’ transport and accommodation still emit a lot of CO₂

Finally, it is impossible to dissociate snow production from the tourism activity that calls for it. In reality, it is responsible for only a fraction of the carbon footprint of a winter sports tourist destination, with skiers’ transport and accommodation proving most polluting. Carbon emissions could nevertheless rise as people travel further and further afield to find snow.

Would the economic benefits be worth it? Our study calls on the tourism sector to craft a strategy based on climate adaptation and decarbonisation as resorts look to the future.

Authored by National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment tourism and information system research engineer Hugues François, Meteo France climatology and climate services engineer Raphaëlle Samacoïts, and National Meteorological Research Center researcher and director Samuel Morin.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Winter hasn’t arrived yet, but French ski resorts are already resorting to snowmaking. Milder temperatures as a result of climate change have effectively led to its use becoming entrenched in recent years, with 29% of French ski slopes area equipped with snowmaking machines, such as snow propeller canons or snow lances. Snow is manufactured by spraying micro-droplets of water in a cold atmosphere, which solidify before they hit the ground. The consistency is close to that of compacted snow.

There has been no shortage of criticism of this production method, which started to be aired in the mid-2000s. In September 2023, the mayor of La Clusaz, a commune to the west of Chamonix, decided to suspend the construction of a reservoir that would have largely supplied water for snow manufacture, following years of opposition from environmental organisations. As the climate crisis worsens, the suitability of this adaptive technology is likely to inspire more debate.

In a journal article, we uncovered the ways the winter sports industry is locked in a state of dependency around snowmaking.

Freedom from bad winters

Snowmaking has been developed by the French winter sports industry since trials began in 1973. The technology is increasingly deployed as a regular tool to improve conditions on the slopes. From 2005-2016, snowmaking accounted for 20% of spending by ski resort managers – the second biggest area behind buying new ski lifts.

Today, this industry doesn’t only absorb the attentions of ski operators, but all players in the winter sports sector. Estate agents for apartments offering ‘ski-in, ski-out’ facilities; tour operators seeking guarantees for their package deals; alpine communities hoping for skiing to come back to their village – all pray that snowmaking blesses their projects.

Despite the rise of this technology and technical advances being made, changing weather conditions under climate change is a limiting factor. The snowmaking process doesn’t free operators from constraints such as the need for sub-zero temperatures and dependence on a plentiful water supply. Now, the effects of climate change are reducing the snow cover depth as well as opportunities to produce snow.

Even though future climate factors risk limiting the effectiveness of snowmaking, moving away from it seems difficult for the winter sports sector. This situation has only recently been analysed.

A classic ‘path dependence’

We show in our research that snowmaking has driven the winter sports industry down an unquestionable “path dependence”. Prior choices of investing in this technology and the increases in snow cover achieved in the past encourage continued spending, starving other activities of resources, whether economic or natural, like water supply.

This path dependence is as likely to lead ski tourism down an expansionary route as one of contraction, with markedly different consequences for mountain regions.

To take the expansionary scenario – investing in snowmaking has shored up a seasonal, weather-dependent activity which displays the characteristics of a heavy industry. Essentially, developing a ski resort relies on significant capital investment, notably for the renewal of ski lift infrastructure, with fixed costs which reinforce a business’s exposure to economic risks linked to the natural variability of the weather. On top of this now comes expertise and increasingly sophisticated techniques for snowmaking, plus the growth of dedicated services.

Ultimately, snowmaking secures a tourism offer for France within the mature and competitive European ski market. Generating snow helps retain France’s market share – the third biggest in the world for winter sports behind the US and Austria with 50 million ski days a year and 27% of international ski tourists.

An estimated 10% of French people take part in winter sports each year, corresponding to 7% of domestic visitors’ overnight stays in metropolitan France. Moreover, France’s 250 ski resorts are estimated to sustain more than 120,000 jobs.

Some much-needed, but overdue changes

However, snowmaking could also go down a route of contraction. Outlays of investment in snowmaking only really benefit the ski industry – maintaining a sectoral specialisation of the economy in winter sports tourism. This risk of over-specialisation can have knock-on effects on mountain regions as a whole. This may delay the inevitable changes and lessen the impact of steps aimed at diversifying Alpine economies.

Thus a vicious circle forms – the bias toward investment in snowmaking equipment captures resources which could be used to start the ball rolling toward eventual transition. This requires a co-ordinated economic and institutional response. It may be that the state has a role to play now, to help these areas break free from a dependence on skiing – indeed from tourism altogether – amid the reality of climatic and environmental change.

Lucas Berard-Chenu is a teacher and researcher of geography at the University of Ningbo and University of Angers joint institute in France, Emmanuelle George is a researcher in tourism development at Inrae in France, Hugues François is a tourism and system information research engineer at Inrae, and Samuel Morin is a researcher and director of the National Centre for Metereological Research in France.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.

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The 10-hectare, 72-room lodge property located off SH8 is being sold as freehold by its owners Mike and Louise Neilson, who have operated it for 33 years. A concession from the Department of Conservation to operate the ski field is also part of the sale.

CBRE, which is managing the sale, said the lodge attracted 25,000 visitor nights per year.

“This asset will appeal to investors who will recognise it as a highly exciting opportunity to acquire an iconic South Island tourism destination with well-established ski and accommodation facilities,” said CBRE Christchurch managing director Tim Rookes.

“Exciting concepts have been drawn up for two undeveloped building sites on the property, capturing spectacular views up the lake. We have also been in discussions with global luxury accommodation operators who have expressed interest in operating a new lodge at Ōhau on behalf of the new owners.”

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With New Zealand’s two major North Island ski fields in financial trouble, the combined impact of Covid-19 on national and international tourism and this year’s very poor snow season has hit hard. But this may be only a sign of things to come as climate change affects snow sports globally.

Ruapehu Alpine Lifts (RAL), which runs the Turoa and Whakapapa ski fields, has debts of NZ$40 million and has gone into voluntary administration. Despite calls for government support, Minister of Tourism and Economic and Regional Development Stuart Nash has said there will be no more funding beyond the $15 million in loans already provided since 2018.

For now, then, the future of snow sports on the slopes of Mt Ruapehu remains uncertain, directly and indirectly affecting many businesses and livelihoods. But RAL is not the first ski company to struggle under increasingly unpredictable winters.

Shorter or less predictable ski seasons and warmer temperatures are already causing closures elsewhere. Some foreign ski fields are pivoting to cater for summer recreational tourism such as mountain biking and hiking.

Some ski resorts in North America, Europe and Australia are now facing uncertain futures. One US study found revenues could fall 40-60% (on average) by 2080. The research is clearly showing the ways we currently practise and consume snow sports are unsustainable.

No business like snow business

Scientists from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) recently modelled the potential impact of climate change on snow levels in New Zealand. Their report showed an average gradual decrease in snow at nearly all elevations as the century progresses.

While all ski areas will experience this, the effects will vary depending on their location and elevation. Under the warmer climate change predictions, the study showed snow depths between 83% and 45% of current maximums at lower elevation sites by 2040.

By 2090, this will be further reduced (on average) to approximately 48% to 9% of current maximum snow depths. According to NIWA snow and ice scientist Dr Jordy Hendrikz:

From these results we expect to see a gradual change in snow levels but […] we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario, right out to the 2090s.

The report was considered good news for New Zealand snow areas, which are reportedly “confident they will adapt to any risks from climate change”. But is a future for ski fields based mostly on making artificial snow really good news?

While some may see innovations in snow-making technologies as future-proofing the ski industry, resorts becoming highly dependent on their capacity to make artificial snow raises serious ethical and environmental concerns. The process uses huge amounts of water and chemical and biological additives, with ramifications for mountain ecosystems and potentially human health.

Greening the snow?

This presents a dilemma. For those privileged enough to visit often expensive ski resorts, the pristine mountain environment is central to the experience. Yet ski resorts are far from environmentally friendly.

With thousands of visitors every day, they have enormous carbon footprints when various factors are accounted for: travel to and from ski fields (planes, 4WD vehicles, buses), the energy demands of lifts and facilities, snow grooming and machinery maintenance.

It’s true that over the past decade there have been attempts to green the snow industry. Ski resorts have invested in sustainability planning and adaption strategies, from recycling food waste to using wind turbines and solar energy. Some clothing and equipment companies are also working to produce more sustainable and eco-friendly products.

Despite signs of change, however, there are questions about whether a form of greenwashing is taking place in the snow sports industry, as it has across the sports sector in general, where many organisations have made superficial claims of environmentalism. Research has shown ski resorts can vary widely in their communication of sustainability efforts versus their actual levels of environmentally responsible action.

From pleasure to politics

Research also suggests that committed lifestyle sports participants like skiers, snowboarders and surfers can develop close relationships with the natural environment that encourage more environmentally sustainable practices.

For example, Protect Our Winters (POW) is an international non-profit organisation (with a New Zealand chapter) where skiers, snowboarders, hikers, climbers and mountain bikers work with scientists, policymakers and politicians to advocate for greater protection of mountains.

As some scholars have observed, however, there is a degree of ecological irony in an industry and its participants claiming to be environmentally conscious while maintaining highly mobile and consumerist lifestyles.

There are other strands of resistance, too. In Aotearoa New Zealand and around the world, mountain ownership and management have long been integral to Indigenous struggles for self-determination. Local communities have recently challenged expansion plans by ski resorts for both cultural and environmental reasons.

Many ski resorts have been built on stolen land. They still represent the privilege and wealth of settler societies. Only a few acknowledge the historical and contemporary politics of ski resort land use.

Any efforts to develop a sustainable ski industry, then, will have to include conserving the environmental integrity and cultural diversity associated with the mountains themselves. But the fact remains that climate change means the future is bleak for the snow sports industry.

While the full effects will be felt by some regions, resorts and communities more than others, the policy questions raised by the troubles at RAL and Ruapehu’s iconic ski fields are urgent: what is the future of snow sports, and what are the ethics of pursuing such activities in a climate emergency?

Holly Thorpe is a professor in Sociology of Sport and Gender at the University of Waikato.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

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